Modelling
Earth Dynamics:
Complexity, Uncertainty
and Validation
  An Icelandic cyclone on September 4, 2003   A fibonacci sequence of quarter-circles inside squares (of sizes 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and 34), estimating the Golden Spiral   Comarison between photo and simulation of August 1997 vulcanian explosion of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat    
Galileo Galilei Piazza dei Cavalieri - Pisa, Italy Ponte di Mezzo - Pisa, Italy Piazza dei Miracoli - Pisa, Italy  
28th IUGG Conference
on Mathematical Geophysics
7-11 June 2010 - Pisa Italy    
Conference on Mathematical Geophysics 2010     Scientific Program
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Sunday 6 June

18.00-20.00
Icebreaker

Monday 7 June

8.00-09.00
Registration and distribution of conference material
09.00-09.30
Opening and welcome
Enzo Boschi, Alik Ismail-Zadeh, Umberto Mura, Augusto Neri, Daniel H. Rothman
Session 2:
Geophysical fluid dynamics II Sub-surface and surface flows
Conveners: Einat Aharonov and Daniel Schertzer
09.30-09.50
Micol Todesco, Antonio P. Rinaldi
The rocks and the fluids. The complex sound of the hydrothermal activity
09.50-10.10
Piotr Szymczak, Tony Ladd
Dissolution in porous media and fractures: initial vs moving front instability
10.10-10.30
Daniel Reeves, Daniel H. Rothman
The role of spatial heterogeneities in the apparent age dependence of dissolution and precipitation rate constants in porous media

10.30-10.50
Coffee break

Session 2:
Geophysical fluid dynamics II Sub-surface and surface flows
Conveners: Einat Aharonov and Daniel Schertzer
10.50-11.10
Enrique Merino
Self-Accelerating Dolomite-For-Calcite Replacement: Dynamics of Burial Dolomitization and Associated Ore Mineralization
11.10-11.40
Liran Goren, David W. Sparks, Einat Aharonov, Renaud Toussaint
Modeling coupled fluid-grain deformation, with implications for landslides, fault-zones, and liquefaction (keynote)
11.40-12.00
Renaud Toussaint, Michael Niebling, Eirik G Flekkoy, Jean Schmittbuhl, Jan Ludvig Vinningland, Knut Jorgen Maloy, Berthilde-Maud Schelstraete, Oistein Johnsen, Anke Lindner, Eric Clement, Christophe Chevalier, Georg Koval
Sedimentation and aerofracture: Sedimentation instability and fracturing/channeling transitions in mixed grain/fluid flows - impact of viscosity and compressibility

Session 4:
Brittle deformation and computational seismology
Conveners: Yehoda Ben-Zion and Massimo Cocco
12.00-12.20
Heiner Igel, Andreas Fichtner, Martin Käser, Paul Käufl, Christian Pelties, Karin Sigloch, Stefan Wenk
Simulation and inversion of full waveforms for 3-D Earth structures and sources
12.20-12.40
Michel Campillo, Berenice Froment, Celine Hadziioannou, Eric Larose, Diane Rivet, Philippe Roux, Florent Brenguier, Nikolai Shapiro
Noise based seismic speed monitoring: co-seismic and post seismic speed drops
12.40-13.00
Gilda M Currenti, Alessandro Bonaccorso, Agnese Di Stefano, Danila Scandura, Charles A Williams, Ciro Del Negro
Stress changes variations around a pressured magma chamber: constraints on magma intrusion and fault slip

13.00-14.30
Lunch

Session 4:
Brittle deformation and computational seismology
Conveners: Yehoda Ben-Zion and Massimo Cocco
14.30-14.50
Jean-Pierre Vilotte, Gaetano Festa, Michel Raous
Dynamic rupture along interfaces including damage and friction: initiation, propagation and radiation
14.50-15.10
Vladimir Lyakhovsky
Damage rheology model: from local quasi-static to non-local dynamic formulation
15.10-15.30
Nataliya Makedonska, Liran Goren, David W. Sparks , Einat Aharonov
Friction versus dilation revisited: insights from theoretical and numerical models.
15.30-15.50
Christopher H Scholz
Large Earthquake Triggering, Clustering, and the Synchronization of Faults
15.50-16.10
Steffen Abe, Karen Mair, Janos L Urai
Roughness Evolution in DEM simulations of fault shear.

16.10-16.30
Coffee break

Session 9:
Computational geophysics: Modern algorithm and applications
Conveners: Marc Spiegelman and David A. Yuen
16.30-16.50
Ilario Mazzieri, Chiara Smerzini, Marco Stupazzini, Francesca Rapetti
Mortar Spectral Element Method applied to the study of seismic response of 2D alluvial deposits
16.50-17.20
Maarten V de Hoop, V. Brytik, Q. Cao, H. Smith, G. Uhlmann, R. D. van der Hilst, H. Wendt
Multi-scale approach to seismic inverse scattering and applications in Earth's upper mantle transition zone (keynote)
17.20-17.40
Nathanael Schaeffer
Towards a faster Spherical Harmonic transform
17.40-18.00
Gabriele Morra
Particle simulations with Stokeslet and Stresslet kernels
18.00-18.20
Jason Phipps Morgan, Joerg Hasenclever, Chao Shi
Better Strategies for Finite Element Solutions of Variable Viscosity Stokes Flow
18.20-18.40
David A. Yuen, Grady B. Wright, David A. Sanchez, Gregory A. Barnett, Jr.
The Coming Role of GPU in Computational Geosciences

 

Tuesday 8 June

Session 6:
Environmental systems and climate
Conveners: Daniel H. Rothman and Eli Tziperman
08.30-08.50
Timothy T. Creyts, Christian G. Schoof
Drainage of water through subglacial water sheets
08.50-09.20
Christian Schoof
Drainage network formation under glaciers (keynote)
09.20-09.40
Andrea D'Alpaos, Cristina Da Lio, Marco Marani
Equilibrium states and transient dynamics in tidal bio-geomorphic systems subject to climate change
09.40-10.00
Roberta Sciascia, Claudia Pasquero, Antonello Provenzale
Settling plankton settling

10.00-10.20
Coffee break

Session 6:
Environmental systems and climate
Conveners: Daniel H. Rothman and Eli Tziperman
10.20-10.40
Aviv Solodoch, William Boos, Zhiming Kuang, Eli Tziperman
Excitation of slow MJO-like Kelvin waves in the equatorial atmosphere by Yanai wave-group via WISHE-induced convection
10.40-11.00
Daniel H. Rothman
Singular Blow-up in the End-Permian Carbon Cycle

Session 3:
Geophysical fluid dynamics III Atmosphere and Ocean
Conveners: Claudia Pasquero and William R. Peltier
11.00-11.30
Geoffrey K. Vallis
The maintenance of stratification in the ocean and atmosphere: from conveyor belts to geostrophic turbulence (keynote)
11.30-11.50
Paola Cessi, Christopher L Wolfe, Bonnie C Ludka
Eddy-balanced buoyancy gradients on boundaries and their role in the thermocline and the meridional overturning circulation
11.50-12.10
Joseph H. LaCasce, Pal E. Isachsen
The dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current
12.10-12.30
William R. Peltier, Stephen D. Griffiths
Internal waves in the atmosphere and oceans and explicit models of the internal tide

12.30-14.00
Lunch

Session 3:
Geophysical fluid dynamics III Atmosphere and Ocean
Conveners: Claudia Pasquero and William R. Peltier
14.00-14.20
Pablo Zurita-Gotor, Geoffrey K Vallis
Circulation sensitivity to heating in a simple model of baroclinic turbulence
14.20-14.40
Hezi Gildor, Daniel F. Carlson, Erick Fredj, Vered Rom-Kedar
Deducing an upper bound to the horizontal eddy diffusivity using a stochastic Lagrangian model

Session 7:
Quantifying the uncertainty in Earth systems
Conveners: William P. Aspinall and Gordon Woo
14.40-15.10
Wendy S Parker
Confirmation and Testing of Scientific Models, Revisited (keynote)
15.10-15.30
Robert E. Kopp, Frederik J. Simons
Assessing the history of global sea level from noisy and incomplete observations of local sea level
15.30-15.50
Laurent Ailleres, Mark Lindsay, Mark Jessell, Eric deKemp
Geological uncertainty: a mean to reduce potential field ambiguity?

15.50-16.10
Coffee break

16.10-18.50
Poster session A

18.00-18.30
CMG-IUGG Business Meeting (for CMG members and IUGG representatives)

 

Wednesday 9 June

08.30-19.00
Field excursion to the Alpi Apuane

Thursday 10 June
Session 7:
Quantifying the uncertainty in Earth systems
Conveners: William P. Aspinall and Gordon Woo
08.30-08.50
E. Bruce Pitman, Abani K. Patra, Eliza Calder, M. J. Bayarri, James O. Berger, Keith Dalbey, Elaine Spiller, Robert Wolpert
Quantifying Input Uncertainty in Models of Volcanic Flows
08.50-09.10
Abani K Patra, Keith Dalbey, E. R. Stefanescu, E. B. Pitman, Eliza Calder, Marcus I Bursik, Michael F. Sheridan
Using Computer Models and Uncertainty Quantification to Construct Hazard Maps
09.10-09.30
Jacopo Selva, Warner Marzocchi, Paolo Papale, Lucia Civetta, Edoardo Del Pezzo, Laura Sandri
Community-based short-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei
09.30-09.50
Franco Flandoli, Enrico Giorgi, William P. Aspinall, Augusto Neri
Comparing the performance of different expert elicitation models using a crossvalidation technique

Special session:
Can our models only predict the irrelevant?
Conveners: Daniel H. Rothman and Augusto Neri
9.50-09.55
Daniel H. Rothman
A memory of Prof. Albert Tarantola
9.55-10.35
Orrin H. Pilkey, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis
Predictive Modeling of Processes on the Surface of the Earth Doesn't Work

10.35-10.55
Coffee break

Special session:
Can our models only predict the irrelevant?
Conveners: Daniel H. Rothman and Augusto Neri
10.55-11.35
Warner Marzocchi
Forecasting large earthquakes and eruptions: is it a scientific issue?
11.35-12.15
Victor Brovkin
Limitations of global terrestrial biosphere models used for future climate projections
12.15-12.55
Roger M. Cooke
The Risk Management Perspective in Climate Change

12.55-14.15
Lunch

Special session:
Can our models only predict the irrelevant?
Conveners: Daniel H. Rothman and Augusto Neri
14.15-14.55
Leonard A. Smith
Extracting Insight from Predictions of the Irrelevant: Can the Diversity in Our Models Inform Our Uncertainty of the Future?
14.55-15.40
Panel and floor discussion
Moderators: William R. Peltier and Gordon Woo

15.40-16.00
Coffee break

16.00-18.50
Poster session B

20.30
Social dinner

 


Friday 11 June

Session 1:
Geophysical fluid dynamics I - Volcanoes
Conveners: Giovanni Macedonio and Michael Manga
08.30-08.50
Matteo Lupi, Sebastian Geiger, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Rebecca J. Carey, Bruce F. Houghton
Explaining the Plinian-phreatoplinian shift during the 1875 Askja volcano eruption by coupling geological and numerical techniques
08.50-09.10
Ittai Kurzon, Vladimir Lyakhovsky, Oded Navon, Bernard Chouet
Amplification of pressure waves in supersaturated bubbly magma
09.10-09.30
Fabio Dioguardi, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Salvatore De Lorenzo
1-D numerical simulation of the gas-particles flow in vertical conduits during large-scale experiments on the mechanics of explosive eruptions
09.30-10.00
Josef Dufek, Michael Manga
Flow transformation in explosive volcanic eruptions: Multiphase and multiscale interactions in pyroclastic density currents (keynote)
10.00-10.20
Gustavo Cordoba, Bruce Pitman, Michael F Sheridan
A two-phase, depth-averaged model for geophysical mass flows in the TITAN code framework

10.20-10.40
Coffee break

Session 1:
Geophysical fluid dynamics I - Volcanoes
Conveners: Giovanni Macedonio and Michael Manga
10.40-11.00
Oleg E Melnik, Natalia V Gorokhova, Pavel Y Plechov, Jon Blundy, Alison Rust, Duncan Muir
Crystal growth in ascending magmas: from individual crystals to crystal populations
11.00-11.20
Antonio Costa, Oleg Melnik, Steve Sparks, Giovanni Macedonio, Joaquim Gottsmann
Nonlinear dynamics of magma flows in conduits

Session 5:
Geodynamics and geomagnetism
Conveners: Matthias Holschneider and Mioara Mandea
11.20-11.50
Johannes Wicht
Towards Realistic Planetary Dynamo Simulations (keynote)
11.50-12.10
Abdolreza Ghods, Jafar Arkani-Hamed
Giant Impacts Control Mantle Dynamics and Cripple the Core Dynamos of Planets
12.10-12.30
Alexandre Fournier
Combining geomagnetic data with physical models of Earth's core dynamics: An introduction to data assimilation in geomagnetism
12.30-12.50
Annette Eicker
The determination of mass transport processes in the Earth's system from satellite gravity missions

12.50-14.20
Lunch

Session 5:
Geodynamics and geomagnetism
Conveners: Matthias Holschneider and Mioara Mandea
14.20-14.40
Marco Cuffaro, Edie Miglio, Paolo Ruffo
Asymmetric Tectonics at Rift Zones: Geodynamics and Numerical Modeling
14.40-15.00
Isabelle Panet, Matthias Holschneider, Michel Diament, Yuki Kuroishi, Valentin Mikhailov
Multi-scale modeling and analysis of the Earth's gravity field using Poisson wavelets
15.00-15.20
Carmen Gaina, Stephanie Werner, Richard Saltus, Sergei Medvedev, CAMP-GM group
Structure and evolution of the Arctic in the light of new geophysical compilation and regional kinematics

Session 8:
Data assimilation and model validation
Conveners: George Bergantz and Alik Ismail-Zadeh
15.20-15.50
Olivier Talagrand
Data Assimilation in Geophysics. An Update (keynote)
15.50-16.10
Laura M. Stewart, Sarah L. Dance, Nancy N. Nichols
Estimation and modelling of observation error correlations for numerical weather prediction
16.10-16.30
Alberto Carrassi, Stephane Vannitsem
Accounting for model error in data assimilation. A deterministic Formulation
16.30-16.50
Alain Caya, Mark Buehner, Tom Carrieres
Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in a coupled Ice-Ocean Model with Ensemble-Derived Background-Error Covariances

16.50-17.10
Coffee break

Session 8:
Data assimilation and model validation
Conveners: George Bergantz and Alik Ismail-Zadeh
17.10-17.30
George W Bergantz, Alain Burgisser
Challenges in model validation of multiphase mixtures: scaling requirements for application to volcanic and magmatic systems
17.30-17.50
Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Augusto Neri, Amanda B. Clarke, Jean-Francois Smekens, Barry Voight, Christina Widiwijayanty
Multiphase flow dynamics and damage zonation of the May 18, 1980 lateral blast of Mount St. Helens: comparison between 3D numerical simulations and field observations
17.50-18.10
Alik Ismail-Zadeh, Satoru Honda, Igor Tsepelev
Quantitative reconstruction of lithosphere subduction using assimilation of geophysical data

18.10
Conference closure

Poster session A

Tuesday 8 June 16.10-18.50

Session 2:
Geophysical fluid dynamics II Sub-surface and surface flows
Conveners: Einat Aharonov and Daniel Schertzer
S2-02
Einat Aharonov, Regina Katsman, Leehee Laronne Ben-Itzhak
How do stylolite networks and stylolite-fracture networks form: insights from modeling
S2-03
Olivier Devauchelle, Alexander P Petroff, Daniel H. Rothman
Coupling groundwater to sediment transport in ravines
S2-04
Roberto M. R. Di Martino, Marco Camarda, Sergio Gurrieri, Mariano Valenza
Modelling the chemical composition transients in volcanic soil gases to evaluate the source depth of the gas reservoir
S2-05
Luis Guarracino, Jesús Carrera Ramírez
Hydraulic and mechanical effects on tide-induced head fluctuation in coastal aquifer systems
S2-06
Ilaria Isola, Francesco Mazzarini
Model for local fluid circulation in the upper brittle crust: insights from veins' thickness distribution
S2-07
Ilaria Isola, Francesco Mazzarini, Giancarlo Molli
Structural analysis of a percolating fracture network in karst systems: the Antro del Corchia Cave, Alpi Apuane, Italy
S2-08
Ioan R. Ionescu, Oana Cazacu
Onset and dynamic shallow flow of a viscoplastic fluid. Applications to dense avalanches
S2-09
Matteo Lupi, Sebastian Geiger, Colin Graham
Fluid-induced seismicity in volcanic and hydrothermal systems: numerical studies of the Tjörnes Fracture Zone, Iceland
S2-10
Alexander P. Petroff, Olivier Devauchelle, Daniel H. Rothman
The bifurcation of channel heads cut by springs


Session 3:
Geophysical fluid dynamics III Atmosphere and Ocean
Conveners: Claudia Pasquero and William R. Peltier
S3-01
Yosef Ashkenazy, Nathan Paldor, Yair Zarmi
On the meridional structure of extra-tropical Rossby waves
S3-02
Yosef Ashkenazy, Ian Eisenman, Hezi Gildor, Eli Tziperman
The effect of Milankovitch variations in insolation on equatorial seasonality
S3-03
Yuley Cardona, Annalisa Bracco
Mesoscale variability, high frequency winds and their impact on the vertical velocity fields of the South China Sea
S3-04
Silvia De Monte, Antonello Provenzale, Roberta Sciascia
Plankton settling and survival
S3-05
Domenico M. Doronzo, Pierfrancesco Dellino
Fluid dynamics of volcaniclastic turbidity currents
S3-06
Eyal Heifetz, Avinoam Rabinovich, Nili Harnik, Orkan M Umurhan, Francois Lott
Gravity wave instability in terms of vorticity inversion and action-at-a-distance
S3-07
Vladimir A. Gusev, Aleksey L. Sobissevitch
Propagation of wideband and shock waves induced by seismic activity in the stratified atmosphere
S3-08
Claudia Pasquero, Eli Tziperman
Statistical parameterization of heterogeneous oceanic convection


Session 4:
Brittle deformation and computational seismology
Conveners: Yehoda Ben-Zion and Massimo Cocco
S4-01
Mohammad R. Asef, Mohsen Farrokhrouz, Hamed Haghi
Evaluation of P-wave and S-wave Correlations
S4-02
Rafael A. Benites, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Seismic wavefield generated by shear dislocations in a structure with a bimaterial interface and near-by cracks
S4-03
Angelo De Santis, Gianfranco Cianchini, Enkelejda Qamili, Alberto Frepoli
The 2009 L'Aquila (Central Italy) seismic sequence as a chaotic process and implications for main shock predictability
S4-04
Mohsen Farrokhrouz, Mohammad R. Asef
Effects of Confinement on Rock Velocity Relations for different Rock Types
S4-05
Yariv Hamiel, Vladimir Lyakhovsky, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Nonlinear deformation and the elastic energy of damaged rocks
S4-06
Gregor Hillers, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Seasonal variations in observed noise amplitudes above 1 Hz in southern California
S4-07
Bulent Kaypak, Gozde Venedik
Three-Dimensional Seismic Velocity Structure in The Denizli Geothermal Region, Western Turkiye
S4-08
Ignace Loris, Frederik J. Simons, Sergey Voronin, Ingrid C. Daubechies, Guust Nolet, Stephen J. Judd, Massimo Fornasier, Phillip A. Vetter
A new approach to global seismic tomography that promotes sparsity with a new three-dimensional wavelet transform in spherical geometry
S4-09
Karen Mair, Espen Jettestuen, Steffen Abe
Characterising contact force networks in 3D sheared granular fault gouge
S4-10
Warner Marzocchi
Some physical insights on earthquake statistics derived from a physics-based earthquake seismicity simulator
S4-11
Mark Naylor, Sarah Touati, Greenhough John, Ian G Main, Andrew Bell
Interpretation of statistical signals in earthquake data
S4-12
Danila Scandura, Gilda Currenti Currenti, Alessandro Bonaccorso, Agnese Di Stefano, Ciro Del Negro
Finite-Element modeling of static stress changes induced by recharging and intrusive phases at Etna volcano
S4-13
Ylona van Dinther, Taras V. Gerya, Luis A. Dalguer, Martin Mai, Gabriele Morra
The long-term seismic cycle within geodynamic numerical simulations of a subduction zone
S4-14
Melissa Vassalli, Gareth S O'Brien, Chris J Bean, Ivan Lokmer, Gilberto Saccorotti
Importance of structural and rheological complexity on ground deformation inversion: a numerical study
S4-15
Dion K Weatherley
On the role of boundary conditions in particle-based numerical simulations of brittle failure
S4-16
Ilya Zaliapin, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Seismic clustering and regional physical properties: A statistical analysis

Session 6:
Environmental systems and climate
Conveners: Daniel H. Rothman and Eli Tziperman
S6-01
Baerbel Langmann, Michaela Werning, Matthias Hort
Regional numerical modelling of volcanic ash atmospheric dispersion and deposition after the eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo and Kasatochi
S6-02
Lauren Padilla, Geoffrey K. Vallis
Joint effects of natural variability and forcing uncertainty on observational estimates of climate sensitivity
S6-03
Yuri N. Skiba, David Parra-Guevara
Pollution level assessment and control of emission rates

Session 9:
Computational geophysics: Modern algorithm and applications
Conveners: Marc Spiegelman and David A. Yuen
S9-01
Alexandr M. Bobrov, Alexey A. Baranov
The role of variable viscosity in the modeling of global stress fields in the Earth's mantle and in floating continents
S9-02
Philipp L. Bykov, Vladimir A. Gordin
The Analysis of Three-Dimensional Geometry of Atmospheric Fronts
S9-03
Gaetana Ganci, Annamaria Vicari, Sergio Bonfiglio, Ciro Del Negro
Hotsat volcano early warning system based on a combined use of SEVIRI and MODIS multispectral data
S9-04
Victor Isakov
Some Numerical Methods for Gravimetric Prospecting
S9-05
Elena M. Mazurova
Computation of Height Anomaly through the Fast Wavelet Transform
S9-06
Gabriele Morra, David A. Yuen
Pulsations of a plume rising through a non-monothonic mantle
S9-07
Henri Samuel, Martha Evonuk
Fast and Accurate Modeling of Advection in Geophysical Flows with Dynamic Implicit Surfaces
S9-08
Anna Scotti, R. Galimberti, P. Ruffo
Darcy based models for oil generation and expulsion from source rock.
S9-09
Frederik J. Simons
Slepian functions and their use in geophysical signal estimation and spectral analysis
S9-10
Nicola Tosi, David A. Yuen, Ondrej Cadek
Dynamical consequences in the lower mantle with the post-perovskite phase change and strongly depth-dependent thermodynamic and transport properties

Poster session B

Thursday 10 June 16.00-18.50

Session 1:
Geophysical fluid dynamics I - Volcanoes
Conveners: Giovanni Macedonio and Michael Manga
S1-01
Marina Bisson, Roberto Sulpizio, Giovanni Zanchetta, Federica Demi, Roberto Santacroce
Assessment of collapsing colluvial cover volume as crucial input for volcaniclastic flow modelling in the Circumvesuvian area
S1-02
Antonio Costa, Giovanni Macedonio, Arnau Folch, Adam Durant
A model for ash aggregation in volcanic plumes
S1-03
Domenico M. Doronzo, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Marco D. de Tullio, Giuseppe Pascazio
Immersed boundary simulation of pyroclastic density currents: numerical scheme and experimental validation
S1-04
Ittai Kurzon, Vladimir Lyakhovsky, Oded Navon
Visco-elastic magma - Fragmentation criteria revisited
S1-05
Einat Lev
Extracting lava velocity and rheology from computer-vision analysis lava flow videos
S1-06
Antonella Longo, Paolo Papale, Andrea Cassioli, Gilberto Saccorotti, Michele Barsanti, Chiara P. Montagna, Melissa Vassalli, Salvatore Giudice
GALES: a consistent finite element numerical library for the simulation of underground magma dynamics
S1-07
Ornit Maimon, Vladimir Lyakhovsky, Oleg Melnik, Oded Navon
Factors controlling propagation of a dyke filled with gas-saturated magma
S1-08
Michael Manga, Josef Dufek
In-situ production of ash and clast breakup in pyroclastic density currents: model results and a preliminary field validation
S1-09
Margherita Polacci
Implications of rock texture characterization on the modelling of volcanic processes
S1-10
Annamaria Vicari, Giuseppe Bilotta, Sergio Bonfiglio, Annalisa Cappello, Gaetana Ganci, Alexis Herault, Eugenio Rustico, Ciro Del Negro
GPU-based models to perform numerical simulations of lava-flow dynamics
S1-11
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Amanda B. Clarke, Augusto Neri, Barry Voight
Modelling extrusion cycles of dome-forming eruptions

Session 2:
Geophysical fluid dynamics II Sub-surface and surface flows
Conveners: Einat Aharonov and Daniel Schertzer
S2-11
Luca Valentini
Numerical Study of the role of Korteweg Stress in Magma Dynamics

Session 5:
Geodynamics and geomagnetism
Conveners: Matthias Holschneider and Mioara Mandea
S5-01
Stoyan N. Avdev, Christian V. Tzankov
Presenting of Earth's gravity field with optimized models of point masses
S5-02
Badia Z. Chulli, Hakim Gabtni
Using gravity and geothermal gradients data to determine the crustal configuration and associated oil and gas accumulations in the Sahel Basin (Eastern Tunisia)
S5-03
Martha Evonuk
Differential flow in planets prior to core formation
S5-04
Nicolas Gillet, Nathanael Schaeffer, Dominique Jault
Rationale and geophysical evidence for quasi-geostrophic rapid dynamics within the Earth's outer core
S5-05
Michael Hayn, Isabelle Panet, Matthias Holschneider, Michel Diament
Multiscale Feature Extraction of Potential Fields Using Poisson Wavelets
S5-06
Omar F. Lopes, Jeferson de Souza
A Super Volcano in Southern Brazil
S5-07
Anne Geese, Mioara Mandea, Vincent Lesur
SAMS - the South African Magnetic model made of Splines
S5-08
Gabriele Morra, Maria Seton, Dietmar Muller
Hierarchical self-organisation of tectonic plates
S5-09
Sofia C. Olhede, Frederik J. Simons
How to measure the strength of the lithosphere without using the admittance or coherence between gravity and topography
S5-10
Maria A. Pais, Nathanael Schaeffer
Extending the Quasi-Geostrophic flow model for core flow inversions.
S5-11
Natalia Ptitsyna, Anatoly Levitin , Lidia Dremukhina , Ludmila Gromova
Modeling external magnetic field dynamics during extreme events
S5-12
Enkelejda Qamili, Angelo De Santis, Gianfranco Cianchini
Shannon information of the geomagnetic field for the past 7000 years and implications on the present field understanding
S5-13
Reyko Schachtschneider, Michael Hayn, Matthias Holschneider
Anisotropy of the geomagnetic field detected with directional Poisson wavelets on the sphere

Session 7:
Quantifying the uncertainty in Earth systems
Conveners: William P. Aspinall and Gordon Woo
S7-01
William P. Aspinall
Evaluating uncertainty and probabilistic forecast skill in volcanic hazard and risk assessments
S7-02
Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, Antonio Costa, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, Luca Nannipieri, Augusto Neri, Michele Prestifilippo, Simona Scollo, Gaetano Spata, Enzo Boschi
Investigating the model-dependent uncertainty of volcanic ash dispersal forecasts
S7-03
Richard A. Brazier, KB Boomer
Empirically based seismic location criteria for simple to complex geological structures: A jacknife approach for local/regional networks
S7-04
Richard A. Brazier, KB Boomer
Stochastic velocity Modeling of the Kaapvaal Craton beneath the BASO station.
S7-06
Mark Naylor, Simon M Mudd, Kyungsoo Yoo
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Inversion of Hillslope Elevation and Soil Thickness Data for the Baselevel History
S7-07
Augusto Neri, Daniele Andronico, William P. Aspinall, Peter J. Baxter, Antonella Bertagnini, Raffaello Cioni, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Franco Flandoli, Enrico Giorgi, Giovanni Macedonio, Maurizio Mulas, Paolo Papale, Marco Pistolesi, Mauro Rosi, Micol Todesco
Assessing pyroclastic density current hazard from sub-Plinian eruptions at Vesuvius (Italy) and associated uncertainties
S7-08
Enrico Peruzzo, Michele Barsanti, Franco Flandoli, Paolo Papale
The stochastic quantization method and its application to the numerical simulation of volcanic conduit dynamics under random conditions
S7-09
Simone Tarquini, Massimiliano Favalli, Alessandro Fornaciai
DEM-due uncertainties in gravity-driven mass movements on Earth surface
S7-10
Marta Tyasto, Olga Danilova, Natalia Ptitsyna, Valery Sdobnov, Giorgio Villoresi
Evaluation the uncertainty of the Earth's Magnetospheric Magnetic Field Models

Session 8:
Data assimilation and model validation
Conveners: George Bergantz and Alik Ismail-Zadeh
S8-01
Dario Albarello, Vera D'Amico, Marco Mucciarelli
Empirical Testing of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates
S8-02
Svetlana Dubinkina, Hugues Goosse, Elisabeth Crespin, Yoan Sallaz-Damaz
Data assimilation using a particle filter in twin and real data experiments with a coupled climate model.
S8-03
Sarah E Gelman, George W Bergantz, Olivier Bachmann
Quantifying the role of individual sources of error and uncertainty in model validation: A case study in conductive heat transfer
S8-04
Stephen A. Haben, Amos S Lawless, Nancy K Nichols
Conditioning of the Variational Data Assimilation problem
S8-05
Ibrahim Hoteit, Xiaodong Luo, Dinh-Tuan Pham, Irene Moroz
Particle Kalman Filtering: A nonlinear framework for Ensemble Kalman Filters
S8-06
Xiaodong Luon, Ibrahim Hotei
Ensemble Local H-infinity filter for data assimilation
S8-08
Johannes Rückelt, Thomas Slawig
Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for a marine biogeochemical model.
S8-09
Hamid Shabanzadeh, Ghader Bagheri, Mahmoud Ghasemi, Mahammah Nekoofar
Investigation of the results of seismography to determine shear wave velocity and soil shear strength parameters
S8-10
Zbynek Sokol, Petr Zacharov
Assimilation of extrapolated radar reflectivity into a NWP model and its impact on forecasts of convective precipitation
S8-11
Hajoon Song, Ibrahim Hoteit, Bruce D Cornuelle, Aneesh C Subramanian
An Adaptive Approach to Mitigate Background Covariance Limitations in the Ensemble Kalman Filter
S8-12
Andrea Storto, Simona Masina, Srdjan Dobricic, Pierluigi Di Pietro
Modelling global ocean background-error covariances via ensemble simulations for use in reanalysis system
S8-13
Aneesh C Subramanian, Ibrahim Hoteit, Lisa Neef, Hajoon Song
Implementation of the nonlinear filtering problem and balanced dynamics
S8-14
Genta Ueno, Tomoyuki Higuchi, Takashi Kagimoto, Naoki Hirose
Maximum likelihood estimation of error covariances in ensemble-based filters and its application to a coupled atmosphere-ocean model
S8-15
Toni Viskari, Kolmonen Pekka, Anttila Tatu, Järvinen Heikki
Simultaneous retrieval of aerosol variables through data-assimilation